Google Global Markets...

Yesterday I was pondering the buried part of the financial industry - the landscape of debt which lies unseen.  Charts and graphs of economists & market men have all tried to portray a picture of what is happening to the world, with little consensus and varying models.  It is the unseen that cannot be charted and that is the unknown.  Way back in October Missmarketcrash read somewhere about the (debt) value of credit default swaps and various other things hovering around 72 trillion dollars.  Missmarketcrash is now kicking herself for not bookmarking said article, which was from a reputable source.  72 trillion is of course a variable number based on success or failure of instruments, and, some of that has been reduced slowly but surely by institutions in various ways.  I would not venture to even guess where that number lies now, but, it must be still rather large on the negative side as one can see from the scramblings of world politics and economies.  

Google Earth has saved my metaphorical soul this morning by releasing Google Oceans.  Yes.  One can dive into the great vast bit of the globe that used to be represented by a rather nice plain shade of blue and discover what lies underneath.  It is most amazing to have our map of the world expanded so greatly and I am an instant fan.  Look here for a glimpse into the great unknown.  

Come on Google.  The next application clearly ought to be Google Global Markets - we would all love a glimpse below the murky surfaces...

The road not taken...

After a full day with my children and a peek at the news, the theme of the day appears to be behavior prediction and its associated theories and models.  Whether mathematical, scientific, sociologic or with some other base, the methodology of behavior prediction is only questioned when one disagrees and has enough knowledge of the topic to dissent.

Generally, that leaves The-Man-In-The-Street with an article in the newspaper or a magazine which he reads as The Truth as it was ascertained by some important sounding technique, be it an analysis of market performance by assessing the long tails and short noses of a PanGaussian analysis, or, Gina Ford's monotone approach to understimulated child-rearing.  In short, we are assured by the opinions of experts.

So, when there is an Issue where one would like to predict or influence an outcome, whether it the markets, world economies, Gaza, my children -- most would rush to well-worn models, theories and and experts - rushing the past through the brains of todays experts. America is very very good at doing that --  "The Past" is a more important concept to a young nation and so it is held in high esteem.  More astute critical thinkers sit around doing the same, but, challenging the foundations of these theories, methodologies and, well, perhaps coming up with something new. And that innovation will more than likely dissent from the norm.

The situations currently under the worlds ponderances are very much off the norm.  Things may look familiar, but, that is the mistake - seeing markets, world economies, Gaza, anything really -  through the lense of the familiar puts a bit of a blinder on perceptions.  And so, to follow, look closely.  What is happening now with regard to economics and everything that swirls around that is a completely new situation that we have never experienced before.

So, drawing those two points together - looking closely, and, challenging the foundations-of-things-that-are-used-to-explain-things is not a terribly mind-shattering thing to say, but to listen and think off the norm might well be the helpful way - and as to behavior prediction with regard to humans, this kind of thinking requires bravery and is generally the road not taken.