Showing posts with label Bank Stress Test. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bank Stress Test. Show all posts

Monday, 23 February 2009

Rare or Medium Rare?

Pass the sauce.  It is not going to be called nationalization.  It is going to be called

Government Stake.

Yes this is my third post today.  The markets have just bled down to 1997 levels.  Citigroup has appears to have failed its stress test in a big way.  Worrisome bloody week even though it all seems so obvious.

And, no.  You can't have it well-done.

Green Banks

We are back to a state of Zugzwang in the banking crisis.  Whether it is a bad bank, a good bank, a zombie bank, a split bank or a nationalized bank has become secondary.  

The word nationalization seems to be the problem this week.  From a metasemantic perspective, there are overarching determinants for the word "nationalization" that are in conflict with America's system of "free enterprise".  

A quick journey into a dark room....(a reduced sauce)...
If one were lost in the dark, and, had a perception of which way the exit was, how "real" that mental map is is not predicated by whether the door is actually found.  The "realness" cannot be determined but, the picture inside ones head used to navigate can still be valid.  If the exit is found, it could be "luck".  On the other hand, perhaps there is a correlation between one's internal map and the external world that is not only linked, but also correct.  If one exits correctly, is it because the internal representation is an accurate map of the the dark room, or, is it due to some kind of natural instinct such as "always walk to the right"?  Lastly, it may be a reference to a past experience: perhaps it is a memory of a room one knew well as a darkened space (such as one's bedroom).

The word "nationalize" may be looked at in relation to the dark room problem.  It is a word we picture and project meaning on.  It is a word without context standing in a dark room.  We may have a valid picture of what nationalization means.  Or we might not.  If we do have an idea of what it means, the correlation of our idea of nationalization to the reality of it might be a match.  This could be down to luck, it could be down to instinct, or, it could be something resting on prior knowledge.  On the other hand, perhaps our understanding or the concept does not match up to the reality.  That only leaves us stumbling around in the dark if we do not shift the inside of our head to correlate it with the room itself.

Nationalization does seem a word that is burdened with conflict.  The handling of the banking crisis is becoming a minefield of semantics - choosing the correct word seems to be harder than choosing the right actions.  The naming of actions must be accurate and understood from a wide range of understanding.  How does one go forward into such complexity with simplicity?

The eco-labeling movement has had much success with marketing a slew of items -- why not twist the concept into action?  Green has a nice ring to it and the cleaning up of toxic sludge has a nice eco foundation to place it upon.  The Green Bank sounds like a marvelous place to relax.

Of course, I am talking nonsense.  But sturdy names are needed for sturdy concepts.  And, with diminished faith in governments these days, the term nationalization lacks credibility irrespective of the effectiveness of the concept.

Friday, 13 February 2009

Surreal Numbers

Missmarketcrash has been dwelling on the bank thing whilst painting her nails in preparation for a holiday in Florida.  The idea of all these inspectors crawling like spiders over bank data is clearly Hollywood bound.  Especially as the numbers are bound to be surreal.

Surreal numbers are an actual mathematical construct by John Horton Conway and popularized in a geeky math novel by Donald Knuth with the most stunningly retro-chic title of "Surreal Numbers: How Two Ex-Students Turned on to Pure Mathematics and Found Total Happiness".  I must order that.  

"Every real number is surrounded by surreals, which are closer to it than any real number." states Wolfram Mathworld.  

Pitch that at the bank inspectors and the data will disperse in meaning all over the place as it should.  I now can go to bed happily without fear of dreaming of spiders again.

Instead, I was stuck with the spiders

"It wasn't me, it was my brain that did it" said the four year old.  Ok then.  Not you, but, your brain started shouting at 530am to wake up the entire house.  With things going the way they are in the world, I'm surprised my brain did not clasp hands with yours and shriek in unison.

My brain was quietly dreaming. I  watched thousands of spiders crawl through black text, scurrying this way and that, in jerky motion.  Acting lost, reacting in panicky little bursts which carried them to and fro, meeting each other and repelling.  The surface was a steep vertical, almost two-dimensional.  It was obviously the bank investigation thing.  

If I had only filled my brain with something different and delicious before sleep.  Instead, I was stuck with the spiders.