Friday, 16 January 2009

Reframing the Probability Dimension

So, we are effectively in between presidents, the banks are toppling again, and a miraculous plane lands safely in the Hudson river to divert attention from the bank topic.  Thank goodness for excellent pilots, random events, and geese.  Miracles do happen.

Yesterday Missmarketcrash read "Global Risks 2009", a report issued by the World Economic Forum.  It did not contain much outside of Missmc's knowledge or expectations, but, it did have some rather nice charts with a kind of 1950's design flair.  The part I really enjoyed was the bit on presenting statistics, or, as they put it, "reframing the probability dimension" -

"Rather than specifying the chance of a disaster occurring next year is great than 1 in 100, experts could indicate that the chances of a disaster occurring in the next 25 years exceeds 1 in 5."

Missmc loves reframing the probability dimension with regard to The Bank Thing.  But in relation to the bank thing, everyone is under some kind of agreement that this is the month things are falling to bits.  The Obama uncertainty variable adds into this as we anticipate his inaugural ride into the presidency in his specially designed high-security limousine made by none other than General Motors.  Reframing the probability dimension on the bank thing pretty much gives the outcome that failure of banks is a certain thing.

Unless what?  Well - unless one can reframe the political dimension it seems certain.  The idea that has been floated about in Britain is of creating one Bad Bank.  That absolves the government in a certain way by taking the enormous pile of hard-to-value-and-hard-to-liquidate assets and putting it in another entity which gives  the illusion of being separate from the government.  

And I would just so enjoy designing the letterhead for the Bad Bank.  We could even get a public works project out of it and build a Bad Bank Building. could almost become something fun....

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